Comments on: No Surprise Factor http://bosoxblotter.com/2005/09/23/ways-to-play/ For news & views on the Boston Red Sox Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:16:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5 by: Mike http://bosoxblotter.com/2005/09/23/ways-to-play/#comment-86 Fri, 23 Sep 2005 10:13:32 -0400 http://bosoxblotter.com/2005/09/23/ways-to-play/#comment-86 Ok, here's the logistics of it all. A hit is a hit, whether you bunt your way on or not. On-base-percentage is light years ahead in value than batting average. So, if you bunt, walk, hit or get hit by a pitch, you're on base. A sac that does not produce a run is more often than not worthless (check the statistics log on this one, most sacs that don't score runs on the play end up not producing a run later in the inning). Essentially, if you do the math, each out in a ball game is nearly 4% of your offensive scoring capabilities (exactly 3.7037%). So, if the goal of the game is to have more runs at the end of the game, each out counts and is crucial to your total score, not just in 1 inning. You need to get on base and utilize your full 12% of offensive session that inning. Like anything else, 4% is a lot. Reducing your odds at any specific moment by 4% can be extremely destructive. So if we take the Sox, who average nearly 6 runs a game, that means they score nearly .22222 runs an out. As most of us know, and statistics show, runs are more often than not scored in clumps. That said, giving away 4% of the pie here and there adds up quickly if it's a one-run game. And the longer you keep your stake in the total percentage of the scoring capability time, the better shot you have at scoring more runs than the other team. It's simple mathematics. I mean after-all, there's only 3 places a pitcher can put runners on base before a run scores. And we all know, that in the post-season, pitching wins ballgames. Ok, here’s the logistics of it all. A hit is a hit, whether you bunt your way on or not. On-base-percentage is light years ahead in value than batting average. So, if you bunt, walk, hit or get hit by a pitch, you’re on base. A sac that does not produce a run is more often than not worthless (check the statistics log on this one, most sacs that don’t score runs on the play end up not producing a run later in the inning).

Essentially, if you do the math, each out in a ball game is nearly 4% of your offensive scoring capabilities (exactly 3.7037%). So, if the goal of the game is to have more runs at the end of the game, each out counts and is crucial to your total score, not just in 1 inning. You need to get on base and utilize your full 12% of offensive session that inning.

Like anything else, 4% is a lot. Reducing your odds at any specific moment by 4% can be extremely destructive. So if we take the Sox, who average nearly 6 runs a game, that means they score nearly .22222 runs an out. As most of us know, and statistics show, runs are more often than not scored in clumps. That said, giving away 4% of the pie here and there adds up quickly if it’s a one-run game. And the longer you keep your stake in the total percentage of the scoring capability time, the better shot you have at scoring more runs than the other team. It’s simple mathematics. I mean after-all, there’s only 3 places a pitcher can put runners on base before a run scores.

And we all know, that in the post-season, pitching wins ballgames.

]]> by: Shawn http://bosoxblotter.com/2005/09/23/ways-to-play/#comment-87 Fri, 23 Sep 2005 13:02:02 -0400 http://bosoxblotter.com/2005/09/23/ways-to-play/#comment-87 When the Sox come to town you know that there is zero chance of small ball. The defense can play back. I'm not saying that you should small ball for 162 games. But if the Sox did it once, maybe twice a week it would make other managers think. It's like a play action pass in football. If the D is playing the run, throw them a change up. When we play the Angels the managers have to think. Even last week the A's had a couple of hit and run atempts. We need a suprise element. Maybe a runner on 1st, 2-1 count with a righty, put on a hit and run. The next time the situation comes up, maybe the hitter gets a pitch middle in (took that from Remy). Lately the only surprises we get are when Tito doesn't put a pitcher in named Chad or when Millar isn't in the starting 9. When the Sox come to town you know that there is zero chance of small ball. The defense can play back. I’m not saying that you should small ball for 162 games. But if the Sox did it once, maybe twice a week it would make other managers think. It’s like a play action pass in football. If the D is playing the run, throw them a change up. When we play the Angels the managers have to think. Even last week the A’s had a couple of hit and run atempts.

We need a suprise element. Maybe a runner on 1st, 2-1 count with a righty, put on a hit and run. The next time the situation comes up, maybe the hitter gets a pitch middle in (took that from Remy).

Lately the only surprises we get are when Tito doesn’t put a pitcher in named Chad or when Millar isn’t in the starting 9.

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