No Surprise Factor
As most of you that read this blog ( 3 maybe?) know, that there are two people that do most of the writing. Mike, who is the creator of the site and a good friend of mine, and myself. While we are not professional writers to any stretch of the imagination, we are avid Sox fans. We share many of the same views, and also disagree on many issues. Now I haven’t read Moneyball yet, so in Mike’s opinion I many have inferior points, to his Billy Beane point of view. Just for the record, I’m not a big Beane fan. It seems to me he builds a team to get to the playoffs and make a little money……that’s it. Like the Braves, always a post-season disaster.
But getting on with what I’m trying to say. I like to play a little more small ball. You know, bunt, move runners. Gene Mauch, who passed away this summer, was noted to say ” You play for one run every inning”. To me that makes perfect sence and if you can get one run every inning, that 9 a game. Now math has never been a strong point for me, but 9 runs a game in theory should be enough to win most of the time.
Some would disagree about wasting an out. You see, I believe in productive outs such as bunting a guy to second or sac fly when a guy is on second. Or hitting to the right side of the field with a guy on second. Maybe that’s one reason why I had a hard time to like Bellhorn and all his strike outs. I guess striking out is better than a double play, but at least when the is put into play a number of good things could happen such as an error. There are also two ways to bunt. Sac or for a hit, which I prefer. Now a sac in the 8th with Damon on first and Renteria at the dish with no outs may be a good thing. Damon goes to second and first is open for Ortiz. The game plan changes. Pitch to Ortiz or pitch to Manny. We all know what would really happen. Renteria would ground into a weak double play and we will put all our hopes into Papi, like always.
Now using a drag bunt, or trying to bunt for a hit is to catch the defense sleeping. And using delayed steals ( Varitek is the best at this, but he hasn’t done it this year) keeps the defense guessing. Why do you thing the White Sox have won so many one run games? It’s not all luck. The constantly keep defenses guessing. They play a lot of small ball.
Since Theo has came on board, he has promised us runs and he has delivered. But, every team in the league know exactly what we are going to do. Remember when Papi bunted and caught the defensive shift 100% of f guard? ( I don’t recommend he do it all the time) If Papi shows that bunt it will slide that shift a few steps right, maybe giving more holes in the infield. Lately we’ve been struggling at the bat and our pitching is something I prefer not to discuss. We need to surprise some of these teams. Maybe playing to little of small ball has affected Renteria, who is very good at that type of game. Maybe the Red Sox has taken away his element of surprise by not asking him to hit and run or bunt more often.
In closing, I though that when we hired Tito ( a NL manager ) we would see a little more small ball, but it hasn’t been the case. He was hired as a tool to get Schilling anyways. And isn’t playing “big ball” just as risky as small ball, when we always have to rely on the bats of Manny and in more cases Ortiz?
S.
September 23rd, 2005 at 10:13 am
Ok, here’s the logistics of it all. A hit is a hit, whether you bunt your way on or not. On-base-percentage is light years ahead in value than batting average. So, if you bunt, walk, hit or get hit by a pitch, you’re on base. A sac that does not produce a run is more often than not worthless (check the statistics log on this one, most sacs that don’t score runs on the play end up not producing a run later in the inning).
Essentially, if you do the math, each out in a ball game is nearly 4% of your offensive scoring capabilities (exactly 3.7037%). So, if the goal of the game is to have more runs at the end of the game, each out counts and is crucial to your total score, not just in 1 inning. You need to get on base and utilize your full 12% of offensive session that inning.
Like anything else, 4% is a lot. Reducing your odds at any specific moment by 4% can be extremely destructive. So if we take the Sox, who average nearly 6 runs a game, that means they score nearly .22222 runs an out. As most of us know, and statistics show, runs are more often than not scored in clumps. That said, giving away 4% of the pie here and there adds up quickly if it’s a one-run game. And the longer you keep your stake in the total percentage of the scoring capability time, the better shot you have at scoring more runs than the other team. It’s simple mathematics. I mean after-all, there’s only 3 places a pitcher can put runners on base before a run scores.
And we all know, that in the post-season, pitching wins ballgames.
September 23rd, 2005 at 1:02 pm
When the Sox come to town you know that there is zero chance of small ball. The defense can play back. I’m not saying that you should small ball for 162 games. But if the Sox did it once, maybe twice a week it would make other managers think. It’s like a play action pass in football. If the D is playing the run, throw them a change up. When we play the Angels the managers have to think. Even last week the A’s had a couple of hit and run atempts.
We need a suprise element. Maybe a runner on 1st, 2-1 count with a righty, put on a hit and run. The next time the situation comes up, maybe the hitter gets a pitch middle in (took that from Remy).
Lately the only surprises we get are when Tito doesn’t put a pitcher in named Chad or when Millar isn’t in the starting 9.